Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Forexample, constraint-based methods exploit conditional independence relations between the variables in order to estimate the Markov equivalence classoftheunderlying causal graph [Spirtesetal.,2000;

A major challenge in reinforcement learning is to determine which state-action pairs are responsible for future rewards that are delayed.

For many classic structured prediction problems, probability distributions over the dependent variables can be efficiently computed using widely-known algorithms and data structures (such as forward-backward, and its corresponding trellis for exact probability distributions in Markov models). However, we know of no previous work studying efficient representations of exact distributions over clusterings. This paper presents definitions and proofs for a dynamic-programming inference procedure that computes the partition function, the marginal probability of a cluster, and the MAP clustering---all exactly. Rather than the Nth Bell number, these exact solutions take time and space proportional to the substantially smaller powerset of N. Indeed, we improve upon the time complexity of the algorithm introduced by Kohonen and Corander (2016) for this problem by a factor of N. While still large, this previously unknown result is intellectually interesting in its own right, makes feasible exact inference for important real-world small data applications (such as medicine), and provides a natural stepping stone towards sparse-trellis approximations that enable further scalability (which we also explore). In experiments, we demonstrate the superiority of our approach over approximate methods in analyzing real-world gene expression data used in cancer treatment.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

In fact, the additive noise model assumes that all categories of the variables are placed in the "right" order; furthermore, if

Arterial aneurysm (Fig.1) is a bulb-shape local expansion of human arteries, the rupture of which is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in US. Therefore, the prediction of arterial aneurysm rupture is of great significance for aneurysm management and treatment selection. The prediction of aneurysm rupture depends on the analysis of the time series of aneurysm growth history. However, due to the long time scale of aneurysm growth, the time series of aneurysm growth is not always accessible. We here proposed a method to reconstruct the aneurysm growth time series directly from patient parameters. The prediction is based on data pairs of [patient parameters, patient aneurysm growth time history]. To obtain the mapping from patient parameters to patient aneurysm growth time history, we first apply autoencoder to obtain a compact representation of the time series for each patient. Then a mapping is learned from patient parameters to the corresponding compact representation of time series via a five-layer neural network. Moving average and convolutional output layer are implemented to explicitly taking account the time dependency of the time series. Apart from that, we also propose to use prior knowledge about the mechanism of aneurysm growth to improve the time series reconstruction results. The prior physics-based knowledge is incorporated as constraints for the optimization problem associated with autoencoder. The model can handle both algebraic and differential constraints. Our results show that including physical model information about the data will not significantly improve the time series reconstruction results if the training data is error-free. However, in the case of training data with noise and bias error, incorporating physical model constraints can significantly improve the predicted time series.

2048 is a stochastic single-player game involving 16 cells on a 4 by 4 grid, where a player chooses a direction among up, down, left, and right to obtain a score by merging two tiles with the same number located in neighboring cells along the chosen direction. This paper presents that a variant 2048-4x3 12 cells on a 4 by 3 board, one row smaller than the original, has been strongly solved. In this variant, the expected score achieved by an optimal strategy is about $50724.26$ for the most common initial states: ones with two tiles of number 2. The numbers of reachable states and afterstates are identified to be $1,152,817,492,752$ and $739,648,886,170$, respectively. The key technique is to partition state space by the sum of tile numbers on a board, which we call the age of a state. An age is invariant between a state and its successive afterstate after any valid action and is increased two or four by stochastic response from the environment. Therefore, we can partition state space by ages and enumerate all (after)states of an age depending only on states with the recent ages. Similarly, we can identify (after)state values by going along with ages in decreasing order.